Tipping-Point State   Oct. 04      Previous         Next

For each state, the current best estimate of the presidential race is given below, with all the polls for the most recent week of polling averaged together. (Note: the most recent week of polling for a given state may not be this week). The states are listed from most Democratic to most Republican. The fourth column gives the candidate's current lead in that state.

If you compare our scores to that of other media sources, you will no doubt find differences. Part of this is that we do count robopollsters (e.g., PPP, Rasmussen, and SurveyUSA) but do not count partisan pollsters, who work to elect Democrats or Republicans. Also, every source has its own algorithm for combining recent polls. Ours is here.

The color coding is as follows:

  • Dark blue: Strongly Democratic (Democrat leads by >= 10%)
  • Middle blue: Likely Democratic (Democrat leads by 5-9%)
  • Light blue: Barely Democratic (Democrat leads by 1-4%)
  • White: Tossup (currently exactly tied)
  • Light red: Barely Republican (Republican leads by 1-4%)
  • Middle red: Likely Republican (Republican leads by 5-9%)
  • Dark red: Strongly Republican (Republican leads by >= 10%)

The states in the middle are the ones in play.

The final two columns are the cumulative electoral votes. For Harris, start at the top, so if she wins D.C. and nothing else, she gets 3 EVs. For Trump, read up from the bottom. If she wins only Wyoming, she gets 3 EVs.

Another way of viewing this table is to ask "How deep into red territory does Harris have to go to win?" Or alternatively (reading upwards from the bottom) "How deep into blue territory does Trump have to go to win?" The state that puts either candidate over the top is the tipping-point state. It is indicated by the little hand icon for each candidate. Sometimes it is the same state, but not always.

Click on a state name to see a graph of all the presidential polls for that state.

Note that the sum of the EVs in a single row is never 538 because that would count the row twice. The sum of Harris's EVs in any row plus the Trump EVs in the row below it is 538, since that assigns each state to only one candidate.

State EVs Harris Trump Lead Harris EVs Trump EVs
D.C.
3
93%
6%
87%
 3
 538
Vermont
3
70%
29%
41%
 6
 535
Maryland
10
64%
32%
32%
 16
 532
Massachusetts
11
63%
33%
30%
 27
 522
Hawaii
4
55%
33%
22%
 31
 511
California
54
58%
36%
22%
 85
 507
Washington
12
53%
32%
21%
 97
 453
Delaware
3
56%
36%
20%
 100
 441
Illinois
19
58%
42%
16%
 119
 438
Connecticut
7
53%
37%
16%
 126
 419
Rhode Island
4
54%
39%
15%
 130
 412
New York
28
54%
40%
14%
 158
 408
Oregon
8
51%
39%
12%
 166
 380
Colorado
10
53%
42%
11%
 176
 372
New Mexico
5
50%
41%
9%
 181
 362
New Jersey
14
51%
42%
9%
 195
 357
Maine
4
50%
41%
9%
 199
 343
New Hampshire
4
51%
44%
7%
 203
 339
Virginia
13
48%
42%
6%
 216
 335
Minnesota
10
49%
43%
6%
 226
 322
Nevada
6
50%
47%
3%
 232
 312
Wisconsin
10
50%
48%
2%
 242
 306
Pennsylvania
19
50%
48%
2%
 261
 296
Michigan
15
49%
47%
2%
     276
     277
North Carolina
16
48%
49%
1%
 292
 262
Arizona
11
49%
50%
1%
 303
 246
Georgia
16
48%
50%
2%
 319
 235
Iowa
6
43%
47%
4%
 325
 219
Florida
30
46%
50%
4%
 355
 213
Texas
40
47%
52%
5%
 395
 183
Kansas
6
44%
49%
5%
 401
 143
Ohio
17
44%
51%
7%
 418
 137
Mississippi
6
42%
51%
9%
 424
 120
Alaska
3
43%
52%
9%
 427
 114
South Carolina
9
42%
52%
10%
 436
 111
Missouri
10
43%
53%
10%
 446
 102
Montana
4
41%
56%
15%
 450
 92
Louisiana
8
33%
48%
15%
 458
 88
Arkansas
6
40%
55%
15%
 464
 80
Oklahoma
7
40%
56%
16%
 471
 74
Nebraska
5
40%
56%
16%
 476
 67
Indiana
11
40%
57%
17%
 487
 62
North Dakota
3
37%
55%
18%
 490
 51
South Dakota
3
31%
50%
19%
 493
 48
Kentucky
8
35%
60%
25%
 501
 45
Tennessee
11
37%
63%
26%
 512
 37
West Virginia
4
34%
61%
27%
 516
 26
Alabama
9
32%
60%
28%
 525
 22
Utah
6
28%
60%
32%
 531
 13
Idaho
4
30%
62%
32%
 535
 7
Wyoming
3
26%
67%
41%
 538
 3