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Signal Scandal Isn't Going Away Quite Yet

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, who peddles outright lies just as effectively as Trump v1.0 WHPSes Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Kayleigh McEnany, was asked about the Signal scandal yesterday, and declared that "this case has been closed." Not so much, as it turns out.

To start, and you may want to sit down before reading this, it turns out this was not the only time that NSA Mike Waltz used Signal to conduct high-level conversations that were classified and supposed to be secure. Undoubtedly, every reader is shocked—shocked!—to learn that. This is according to reporting from The Wall Street Journal (note: paywalled).

Further, Waltz has enemies within the administration. Some of them dislike his views on foreign policy (he is an old-school Reaganite). Some of them are angry that he embarrassed the administration. Some are anti-Waltz for both reasons. In any event, the anti-Waltz crew, led by J.D. Vance, is seizing this opportunity to press their advantage. They want Donald Trump to cashier Waltz immediately, and to replace him with... presumably some other unqualified crazy person.

Reportedly, Waltz's job security has come down to a fairly simple calculation. On one hand, Trump is absolutely furious with his NSA, both because of the black eye he gave the White House and because it was Jeffrey Goldberg, of all people, who was included in the meeting and broke the story. On the other hand, Trump really, really, really does not want to give a "scalp" (his word, or at least his word as relayed through underlings, off the record) to the media. In particular, he does not want to deliver a career-defining feather for Goldberg's cap.

As a result of the delicate balance between Trump's anger with Waltz and Trump's hatred of the press, the NSA is currently still employed, but is on "shaky ground." We would guess that he will weather this storm, in the short term, but that he'll be shown the door sometime later this year, in a way that it looks like it's coming from Trump alone, and has nothing to do with outsiders or their reporting.

So it's Waltz who is presently in the frying pan, and who is learning whether he'll be dumped into the fire. However, there's another guy who screwed up bigly here, and that is Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. A fair bit of the classified info came from him, and he was also the person in that conversation who had the greatest authority, and greatest responsibility, to put an end to the whole thing, and to redirect to actual, secure channels.

By all indications, Hegseth has avoided much blowback, at least for now. However, there is some reporting that folks in the Pentagon are already weary of the SoD, and of his cavalier attitude toward the DoD's mission. They are upset about the Signal fiasco, they are angry that Hegseth brings his wife to meetings where civilians don't belong, and they are not pleased by his general habit of di**-waving. So, don't be too surprised if Hegseth's position becomes untenable at some point between now and, say, the end of the year. (Z)

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Today's Crazypants Report: This is What Grift Looks Like

We're not sure what Donald Trump's single-greatest motivation is. There was a piece in The Conversation about a month ago arguing that his most pressing need is to dominate, presumably to make up for all the times he was made to feel small as a child (by his parents) and early in his business career (by more successful real estate investors).

Maybe that is indeed #1 on his list. We may never know for sure, since he's never going to let anyone in on his innermost thoughts, especially someone qualified to try to make sense of them (like, say, a psychiatrist). Another contender for #1, and the one that we might pick, is Trump's pathological need for more money—there's no such thing as enough for him. Of course, for him, the line between "I must have more money" and "I must dominate" is a pretty thin one, since he judges success and failure by how much money someone has, or how much they realize from any particular deal.

We write all of this as entree to four different stories about outrageous grift from Trump and/or his inner circle, all of them from just the last week or so. Here's the rundown:

1. The Big One: One day, perhaps, Trump will realize huge gains due to his holdings in Truth Social, through Trump Media & Technology Group. However, he's already realized huge gains through his crypto coin, $TRUMP. Despite the fact that $TRUMP is not a medium of exchange, and so has no actual value, it has generated at least $14 billion in trades. It is hard to know exactly how much Trump has made from this setup. He and his family own the company that controls $TRUMP, and get 75% of trading fees. So, just from the various transactions that have taken place, he's probably collected about $100 million. He may also have brought in some additional, sizable amount of money through ownership of some portion of the $TRUMP coins. And, per Reuters, about four dozen others have enjoyed handsome returns on their $TRUMP "investment"—at least $10 million each.
   
   Remember, again, that the $TRUMP coin has no actual value. Then consider that the coin's price has dropped by more than two-thirds since its high point. What that means is that Trump and 50 (or so) of his closest friends made their fat returns on the backs of a lot of smaller fish who are almost certainly going to be left high and dry. How many small fish? About 200,000 of them. Obviously, some sizable portion of that group are people who are huge Trump fans. So, he's fleecing his own people.
   
   This is a textbook pump-and-dump scheme. And since the potential to pump-and-dump $TRUMP is probably dead at this point, the First Sons—Donald Jr. and Eric—have just announced a different bitcoin. This one is called $USD1, and will be pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar. That means it will have actual value, which also means that suckers investors who bought $TRUMP can tell themselves, "Well, this one is different." This particular type of bitcoin, called a stablecoin, has been widely criticized on a number of bases, most commonly that stablecoins are poorly regulated and they often fail to hold their value (in contrast to claims that they are guaranteed to hold their value). Undoubtedly, the Republican-controlled Congress will get right to work on those problems, now that the Trumps are in the stablecoin business.
   
   
2. Reparations: It wasn't good enough for Donald Trump that he merely pardoned the convicted criminals who attempted to pull off a coup for him on Jan. 6, 2021. Now he wants to compensate them for their suffering on account of getting caught breaking the law. In a way, this is surprising since Trump hates losers and anyone who gets caught and convicted is normally a loser in his mind.
   
   Last week, Trump told Newsmax's Greg Kelly there is talk about a compensation fund for the rioters "because a lot of people in government really like that group of people." He added they were treated unfairly. He specifically noted Ashli Babbitt, who was fatally shot by a police officer while she was trying to break into the Capitol.
   
   With Trump it is hard to tell which ideas are serious ones he will fight for, and which are just one-off remarks he will never bring up again. A compensation fund paid for by the government would require an act of Congress, and that seems unlikely because only representatives in deep-red districts would vote for that unless it was buried in a much larger package and no one noticed. But the Jan. 6 coup attempt is something that still looms large in Trump's mind, so maybe he is serious about this.
   
   What he could also do is create a foundation or some other legal structure and get millionaires and billionaires who want to curry favor with him to donate to it. Then he could give a portion of the take to the Jan. 6 criminals, while keeping the rest for himself—since after all, he also suffered on that day. After all, Congress decided that he lost the 2020 election. That wasn't easy to take.
   
   It is also worth noting that if a bunch of hardcore Trumpers enjoy a big windfall, either funded by the government or by private donors, there is every chance that many of them will spend the money on things like Trump-branded guitars, or golden Trump shoes, or $USD1 bitcoins. You always have to assume with Trump that whenever he talks about money going to other people, he's really thinking about how some of that money will end up in his own pocket.
   
   
3. This Resurrection Brought to You By Chick-Fil-A: The White House Easter Egg Roll dates back to 1878. In that year, the meanies in Congress said they wanted those damn kids to get off their lawn, and so a tradition that pre-dated the Civil War moved to the grounds of the Executive Mansion, where it's remained ever since.
   
   The fellow who was president in 1878 was Rutherford B. Hayes. That means that 25 non-Trump presidents, both Republican and Democratic, never sought to commercialize the event. Maybe they felt that was inappropriate for an event that involves children. Or one that involves "The People's House." Or maybe they were aware that, in the end, Easter is a rather important religious holiday, and thought that it really should not be cheapened by money. Most likely, though, is that those 25 men did not have dollars on the brain, and so it just didn't occur to them to try to squeeze money out of the thing.
   
   Trump does have dollars on the brain, and so too do a number of the grifters in his inner circle. And so, his team created a splashy brochure offering "opportunities" to purchase sponsorships. If you really love Trump/Jesus, then you can buy the Platinum Package for $200,000. That gets you a prominent place on the sponsorship list, a bunch of tickets, a few seats at a brunch, and some benefits that we don't understand, like "Branding for a key area or activation." If you only kind of love Trump/Jesus, you can get the cheaper Gold Package ($125,000) or Bronze Package ($75,000).
   
   Nobody is entirely clear on where the funds, once raised, will go. However, when Trump is involved in anything involving money, and it's not clear where exactly the money is going, you pretty much know EXACTLY where it's going.
   
   
4. Miracles for Sale: This one is not from Trump himself, it's from one of his inner circle (although don't discount the possibility that he gets a cut of the action). Trump's prosperity-gospel-loving "faith" advisor Paula White produced a video in which she suggested that if you send her $1,000, that will unlock up to seven "specific supernatural blessings." Among the possible "blessings" (prizes?) are God assigning an angel to you, prosperity, curing sickness and punishing your enemies.
   
   If this sounds like ridiculous—and perhaps even evil—nonsense, you can stop reading. If this sounds like something of interest, however, we are pleased to advise that Electoral-Vote.com also has a special on miracles right now. If you send us $500 before Easter, you get FOURTEEN miracles. That's right, twice as many miracles for half the money! You don't even need the staff mathematician to figure out that's four times as many miracles per dollar as White is offering. All you have to do is click on the PayPal link above and send us the $500. You don't even have to send us an e-mail; we've automated the process, so that you'll get your miracles as soon as the money leaves your bank account.

And that's the latest news on the grift front. (Z & V)

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Will the Shadow Docket Be Used for Shady Things?

As Donald Trump has ramped up his rule by executive order, the laws and the Constitution be damned, the courts have proven to be a rather large wrench in the works. Enter the shadow docket. Trump made liberal use (no pun intended) of this party trick in his first term and now he's just gone hog-wild as the lower courts continue to enjoin his illegal actions and the federal appellate courts are mostly ignoring his entreaties. Following is a summary of his efforts to get SCOTUS to stop those big meanies from making him follow the law—it's not fair!

1. Trump v. J.G.G.: Trump has filed an application for an emergency stay of a district court's injunction against Trump's invocation of the Alien and Enemies Act to unilaterally designate and deport, without due process, people it says are undocumented and members of a Venezuelan gang. Trump is arguing to the Supreme Court that he alone decides whether the U.S. is at war, a prerequisite to invoking the Act, and, likewise, whether anyone in the U.S. is a threat to national security. The administration is also arguing that the plaintiffs should have filed habeas corpus petitions in Texas where they were/are being held.
   
   A 3-judge panel on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals rejected those arguments by a 2-1 vote. Chief Justice John Roberts gave the plaintiffs until April 1 to submit a brief in opposition. The temporary restraining order (TRO) applies to anyone subject to Trump's order, including the more than 200 people removed to El Salvador on midnight flights. Meanwhile, the Department of Justice has invoked the state-secrets privilege in response to Judge James Boasberg's order for details about the commercial flights (details revealed publicly by Secretary of State Marco Rubio) and whether the government violated the TRO in continuing the flights to El Salvador. AG Pam Bondi has argued the privilege applies despite arguing in a different case, in front of the same judge, that texting detailed attack plans does not involve state secrets.
   
   
2. Birthright Citizenship: Trump has attempted, via XO, to end the Fourteenth Amendment's guarantee of citizenship to anyone born in the U.S. Three different district courts said, "Uh, no," and enjoined the XO. Trump applied for an emergency stay arguing, among other things, that the nationwide injunction issued by Judge Leo T. Sorokin in Massachusetts "compromise[s] the Executive Branch's [sic] ability to carry out its functions." The Ninth, Fourth and First Circuit Courts of Appeal denied Trump's requests for a stay of the lower courts' orders.
   
   
3. Mass Firings of Probationary Federal Workers: On March 14, District Judge William Alsup issued a preliminary injunction ordering Trump to immediately reinstate more than 16,000 probationary workers summarily fired in February. The order is directed at the Departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Defense, Energy, Interior and Treasury. The case was brought by nonprofit groups whose members are impacted by the reduced services that result from the mass firings. Alsup found that the Office of Personnel Management, which directed the firings, has no authority to hire and fire employees at another agency. The Ninth Circuit then denied Trump's request for an administrative stay and has not yet ruled on its request for an emergency stay. On March 24, Trump went to SCOTUS for both. The Supremes have called for a response to Trump's requests by noon on April 3. In another case involving probationary employees, on March 26, District Judge Bredar in Maryland extended a temporary restraining order, which requires the reinstatement of 24,000 probationary employees, finding the administration did not follow the laws for mass layoffs and reductions-in-force in terminating the employees. The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals denied Trump's request for an administrative stay, but so far they have not added this case to their growing list of SCOTUS petitions for an emergency or administrative stay.
   
   
4. Cuts to Funds for Teacher Training: A district court judge out of Boston granted a TRO requiring the Department of Education to restore grants to two programs for teacher recruitment, training and professional development. The DOE abruptly canceled the programs after finding some materials related to—say it with us—the boogeyman du jour, "DEI" (pause for collective gasp). The Court limited the order to those eight states who had brought the case, California, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Colorado, Illinois, Maryland, New York, and Wisconsin. The federal appeals court denied Trump's request for a stay pending appeal, so on Friday the administration went whining to SCOTUS... er, petitioned the Court for an emergency stay. The Court has yet to respond to this latest appeal.

To put some of this into context, in the 16 years of the Barack Obama and George W. Bush administrations, they asked for emergency relief from SCOTUS only eight times.

But Trump has increasingly relied on the so-called shadow docket because it short-circuits the normal processing time, keeps opponents on their heels, and allows for some shenanigans at the high court that wouldn't pass muster if the case proceeded in the regular course of business. The Court is supposed to intervene at such an early stage of a case only on the very rarest of occasions, and only when the stakes are so high that failing to step in could lead to catastrophic results. But Trump has learned that this Court will be only too happy to accommodate his requests when it suits their own political agenda, and he had a pretty good track record in his first term. He filed 41 emergency appeals in his first term and won all or part of them 28 times, so why wouldn't he routinely file such appeals and clog the system to his heart's content? Only the Court can put a stop to this kind of abuse of process, but it's anyone's guess how far they'll let Trump go in his second term. We'll know soon enough, though. (L)

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Trump Teases Third Term

Yesterday, Donald Trump did an interview with NBC. And the big "news," such as it is, was that he once again hinted he may try for a third term, claiming that "there are methods" by which he might do so.

Although this got a lot of attention yesterday, we have only four things to say. First, there are NOT "methods," beyond those that involve twisting and turning the Constitution, and then hoping SCOTUS looks the other way. This is not impossible, but it's not likely, either. The justices are clever enough to know that letting Trump game the system will open the doors for some Democrat to do so in the future. And Democrats tend to be MUCH younger at age of election than Republicans. The last six Democrats, at time of their first election to the presidency, were 43, 56, 52, 46, 47 and 78. The last six Republicans were 62, 56, 69, 64, 54 and 70.

Second, even if SCOTUS does re-invent the Constitution, American voters don't like dynasties (see Bush, Jeb). Also, Barack Obama might have a thing or two to say about Trump v3.0. Yesterday, in fact, the top trending item on eX-Twitter was "Obama 2028."

Third, there is a bit of a silver lining here. If Trump feels the need to lay the groundwork for running again, then it means he is not planning to retain the office by fiat. Or, more likely, that he realizes it's not practical to retain the office by fiat.

And fourth, Trump breaks this shtick out anytime he wants to create a distraction—like, say, from the Signal mess. We do not wish to play his game, and so it is very likely going to be a LONG time before you see us writing about a hypothetical third Trump term again. (Z)

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Democratic Presidential Candidate of the Week, #39: Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

It's going to be a while before we get to someone who is truly viable. That said, sometimes a dark horse emerges. So, we have to do what we can to cover our bases.

• Full Name: Bernard Sanders
  
  
• Age on January 20, 2029: 86
  
  
• Background: Since "Bernie from Brooklyn" is one of the most famous politicians in America, his story is likely well known to readers, but just in case: He was born in New York to a homemaker mother and a traveling-salesman father. We never thought about it until writing this, but we're not sure if traveling salesman (specifically traveling paint salesman) counts as "blue collar" or "white collar." What it definitely counted as was "lower middle class"—Sanders has often noted that while his family was not poor, there was never money for extras.
  
  During his high school years, Sanders was interested more in extracurricular activities than in his classes, and he excelled in both track and basketball. In college, first at Brooklyn College, and then at the University of Chicago, this remained the case, although "sports" was replaced by "activism." The future politician not only joined the standard lefty groups of the 1960s (CORE, SNCC, etc.), but also the Young People's Socialist League, therefore commencing a lifelong affinity for socialism.
  
  After taking his degree, Sanders tried his hand at a gaggle of different jobs, including teacher, filmmaker, writer, psychiatric aide and carpenter. Disliking the hustle and bustle of the big city, he relocated to Vermont, taking up residence in the town of Stannard, which was then home to 88 people (that's rather fewer than Chicago). That might have been a bit TOO rural, as Sanders quickly relocated to Montpelier, and then to Burlington. The latter is the largest city in Vermont, but with a bit more than 44,000 people, it wouldn't crack the Top 50 in California or New York. Clearly, at least for Sanders, it was a happy medium between giant Chicago and tiny Stannard, as he still lives in Burlington today, his 55th year as a resident.
  
  
• Political Experience: Sanders' political career got off to an inauspicious start. His first election was for class president in high school, and he finished a distant third (and last) place, with a pretty lefty campaign that focused on taking care of orphans of the Korean War. Admirable, but a bit outside the scope of a student council president. He followed that loss with four more, running as the perennial candidate of the far-left Liberty Union party for various offices in the 1970s. That included two runs for governor of Vermont.
  
  Sanders' fortunes finally turned around, ironically enough, in the same election that gave America Ronald Reagan as its president. He ran for mayor of Burlington as the candidate of a different lefty party, the Citizens Party, and won in a nailbiter, with a margin of victory of just 10 votes. He governed as a self-identified socialist, focused particularly on increasing the minimum wage. He proved an effective administrator, and was reelected to the mayoralty three times. A fifth term was Sanders' for the asking, but he decided that it was time to give someone else a turn. During his years in the mayor's office, he did some unorthodox things that attracted national attention, including hosting a public access show called Bernie Speaks with the Community and recording a folk album called We Shall Overcome.
  
  Although Sanders has never confirmed this publicly, it is probable that his decision to end his time as mayor was prompted by Jim Jeffords' (R) decision to run for the U.S. Senate. This left Vermont's U.S. House seat open, and Sanders took a shot at it in 1988. Running as an independent, he finished second, with 38% of the vote, losing to Peter P. Smith (R). In 1990, Sanders tried again, still running as an independent, but also getting the Democrats to throw in with him. He won that election and then was reelected six times. In 2006, when Jeffords decided to step down after three terms, Sanders tried for another promotion. This time, he was successful on his first attempt, which was fortunate for him because the other Vermont seat was then occupied by Senator-for-almost-life Patrick Leahy (D). Sanders has been in the Senate ever since, which means he's been reelected three times.
  
  Adding it up, and Sanders' record in runs for office (not including student council, but counting his two failed presidential bids) is 15-7. Most of those seven losses, however, were longshots where Sanders did not expect to win, and he was just looking for more visibility for himself and/or his issues.
  
  
• Signature Issue(s): Social class. That's not exactly an issue, per se, but it's as close as we can come to capturing Sanders' program in a nutshell. He thinks rich people have gotten too rich and poor people have gotten too poor, and his focus is on trying to fix that.
  
  
• What Would His Pitch Be?: "I get younger voters excited in a way that other Democrats do not."
  
  
• Instructive Quote: "I'm not always a smiley kind of guy."
  
  
• Completely Trivial Fact: Sanders says that his first lesson in the heartlessness of capitalists came in 1957, when his beloved Brooklyn Dodgers were spirited away to the other coast by millionaire team owner Walter O'Malley.
  
  
• Recent News: While many Democrats seem to be paralyzed, Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) have undertaken a rally tour, trying to lift the spirits of the anti-Trump forces, and to encourage resistance. It could not be clearer who the heir to the Bernie throne is.
  
  
• Strengths for the Democratic Primaries: (1) If Sanders ran, it would be his fourth presidential cycle, and he still commands the loyalty of many younger Democrats; (2) In a primary field with a lot of contenders, a smallish-but-loyal base can be enough to come out on top; (3) He's one of the best public speakers the Democrats have; genuine in a way that you just can't fake.
  
  
• Weaknesses for the Democratic Primaries: (1) He's old; (2) While Sanders is popular with young men, and he made some inroads with Latinos in 2020, he's never solved his problem with Black voters, and Black voters play a BIG role in Democratic primaries, particularly the early ones; (3) Did we mention he's old?
  
  
• Polls: We're going to have to work through quite a few entries before we get to someone the pollsters are actually asking about. However, according to YouGov, he's the third-most-popular Democrat in America. And the two Democrats above him—Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter—can't run for president in 2028, albeit for different reasons.
  
  
• How Does the Readership Feel?: We asked readers for their thoughts on Sanders running for president; here are some of those responses:
  
  
  • B.H. in Frankfort, IL: Personally, I love Bernie and his ideas. However, I wouldn't vote for him in a primary. His age, his lack of any real legislative accomplishments, and his socialist label combine to make him unelectable. I admire him, but his time has passed.
    
    
  • J.J. in Johnstown, PA: I think Sanders will play a big role in the 2028 election, but not as the nominee. He's just too old. His popularity is, and will likely remain, very high. I would expect him to have a fair bit of influence over the party platform and be a major surrogate for the nominee.
    
    
  • W.V. in Andover, MN: Bernie's simply not a Democrat, he's a socialist. Presidential candidates should stay in their own lane. No one would expect Democrats to nominate Liz Cheney for President, simply because she is a famed Republican Anti-Trumper! As a mainstream, moderate Democrat, Sanders angered me in 2016, when Democrats should have been united behind Hillary Clinton. In the wildly-diverse 2020 field, he was both too far to the left and visually old and frail. A great legislative voice for the far left, Sanders was already too old in 2020, let alone 8 years later, when the far left has a much younger, much more exciting option just getting started in the presidential field in AOC.
    
    
  • G.K. in Blue Island, IL: There is a role in American politics that, in my opinion, has been gradually vanishing, and that's the role of "Senior Statesman"—someone who is generally above reproach in their personal and professional life, has been in politics long enough to have acquired an enviable amount of experience and wisdom, speaks truth to power, but whose words are not tainted by an overweening ambition or apparent ulterior motive. I like that role for Bernie Sanders, much more than anything presidential.
    
    
  • K.F. in Berea, KY: I grew up and came of age in Vermont. For most of my life Bernie has been a congressman or senator for me and/or my family. I met with him in his office in 2003 about TRIO programs and I was taken aback by his honesty, genuine concern for people, and his willingness to listen to his constituents. This is something I naively thought all politicians did for their constituents. In fact, I moved to Kentucky in my mid-twenties and found out real quick that most politicians are NOT like that! I remember bringing my Hoosier wife to the state capitol for a Fourth of July party. I jokingly said, "We can see if Bernie wants to stump for me in a state house run!" She said, "Yeah, right... he won't be there." We didn't so much as park and there was Bernie walking up the street. He stopped and we had a nice chat and my boys were able to meet him. Unfortunately, I believe he's a bit long in the tooth to be president. I'd like to see him be a kingmaker. I never did ask him to stump for my non-existent state house run. I am proud to say that I have voted for Bernie in every election in which he was on my ballot. Living in Kentucky for the last 20 years gives me a unique experience on getting to know two stellar candidates for president. I can't wait to sing the praises for Gov. Andy!
    
    
  • D.H. in Durham, NC: I continue to believe that Bernie would have won the 2016 election against Trump, as he would have also been able to connect with the working class and would have split that vote. No way would Bernie have lost the blue wall states. Then our long national nightmare never would have started. Alas, the Democrats, as always, played it "safe" and shot themselves in the foot by being afraid of Bernie and having amnesia regarding how significant the underlying dislike/hatred of Clinton was. That said, Bernie's window, sadly, has closed.
  
  
• The Bottom Line: Bernie's time is past. If he was the nominee, everyone would be making this basic joke: "To their credit, the Democrats realized that Joe Biden's age was a problem. However, they somehow concluded that the issue was that he was too young."

Next week, it's #38 Al Franken. If readers have comments about him running for president in 2028, please send them to comments@electoral-vote.com.

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This Is How the French Do It

As it turns out, far-right French politician Marine Le Pen is not just a paranoid xenophobe, she's also a crook. She and her party, National Rally (RN), looted the European Parliament to the tune of €4.1 million (about $4.4 million). This was accomplished by using money meant to pay E.U. staffers to instead pay RN staffers. This is not kosher, and the amounts involved turned it into a serious criminal matter.

Yesterday, Le Pen was convicted and sentenced for her role in the scheme. She has to pay €100,000 (about $108,000) in fines, and she's also sentenced to 4 years in prison—2 years of house arrest, 2 years suspended as long as she does not commit any more crimes. She is also banned from running in the 2027 French presidential election. Le Pen claims she is an innocent victim, and that she is being persecuted by her enemies, and yada, yada, yada. She will appeal, of course, though people who know far more about French law than we do say she's got little chance of prevailing.

So, what impact will this have on the French elections? That, of course, is hard to say, given how many lifetimes there are between now and when French voters head to the polls. There could be a rally 'round the flag effect, not unlike what happened with Donald Trump, wherein Le Pen's base is angered and makes sure to turn out, whether she's on the ballot or not. On the other hand, the opposition might be able to paint Le Pen/RN as hopelessly corrupt, and just as willing to steal the money of La Belle France as they are the money of the E.U.

This question is not merely academic, because the current administration is not terribly popular, the continent and the world are currently in a "throw the bums out" frame of mind, and Le Pen/RN were considered the frontrunners to claim victory in 2 years. For what it its worth, the last three polls to ask respondents about Le Pen gave her 35%, 35% and 36% support, which was enough to lead all other contenders by 10+ points. In the only poll taken since Le Pen's downfall, her successor, Jordan Bardella, polled at... 36%. So, maybe it's the party and not the candidate. That said, there's plenty of time for things to change.

Meanwhile, it is interesting to learn that there are countries out there that hold crooked politicians responsible for their misdeeds, seeing to it that they are subject to scrutiny by a court, and imposing penalties, up to and including disqualification from office, when appropriate. Undoubtedly, our readers in the United States and Israel did not know that was possible. (Z)

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